AL West Preview - Part I

Anaheim – Phil Perez arrives in Anaheim thanks to The Butterfly Effect

It’s no secret that the cost of healthcare is rising every year. Hospitals routinely charge patients as much as $10 for Tylenol. A trip to the emergency room can cost $200 before you even see a doctor. For the Anaheim Angel’s, an ACL injury cost the team $62 million dollars, or approximately two-thirds of the team’s payroll.

Who knew that when Anaheim’s starting right fielder Pascual Tejera tore his ACL mid-season last year, the butterfly effect set into motion from the injury would eventually grow into an offseason thunderstorm over Philadelphia? With Tejera still recovering on the DL, Anaheim opened up the checkbook and spent $62 million to sign 31-year-old Silver Slugger shortstop Phil Perez (.312/.374/.479) out from under the Phillies. The extremely durable shortstop for Philadelphia saw 654 AB last year and hit 26 homeruns, but he is not blessed with the natural range for short. As such, Perez will get the start at third base with the Angels. The move allows last year’s starting third baseman Victor Sanchez, a nice defender in his own right, to move to right and fill the void created by Tejera.

Capturing headlines, the signing of yet another solid hitter is one of the few moves Anaheim apparently felt it need to make last year in what proved to be a relatively quiet offseason. It’s not hard to see why, though. The team returns the core of its offense that was among the league leaders in average (.283, 4th), on-base percentage (.357, 5th), runs (895, 6th) and RBI (867, 6th). All that offense helped net them 98 wins last year, the AL West crown and even a game 7 in the LCS with eventual World Series Champion Texas.

The positional moves also upgrade the team’s defense that was already above the league average in every category and helped the team finish with a run differential of +116.

Anaheim did suffer one loss of note: starter Brandon Saunders. The free agent took his 13-5 record and 1.29 WHIP in 24 starts to the White Sox in exchange for $13.5 million. That makes the rotation a lot more top heavy in talent, as starting pitchers Geovany Armas, Emmett Williams and Don Watkins combined for just 19 wins in 66 starts on a team that won 98 regular season games. Consider that two of Anaheim’s relievers combined for 18 wins out of the pen.

The good news is that ace Neil Terry will continue to anchor a staff that finished slightly above the league average in both WHIP and ERA. The Angels also signed long reliever Joe Howe from Cleveland for a one-year, $4.2 million deal. Joe worked 107 innings out of the pen last year for the Indians, striking out 95 and collecting a 1.34 WHIP. Whether Anaheim seeks to convert him into a spot starter remains to be seen.

dwb’s take: The Angels were a victory away from a World Series appearance, and the single addition of Perez will help the team on multiple fronts. But are the Angels gambling that the bats will bring victories to the bottom of the rotation? With little pitching help to turn to in the minors and payroll perilously close to the salary cap, Anaheim will need to get very creative if it feels the need to make a mid-season trade for a starter.

Top 2B

1. David Davis CH1
   .309/.370/.586; 41 HR, 133 RBI; .976 Fldg %, 15 good plays, 1 bad play
   Great range. Great glove. Makes great contact. Very good power. Dominant against LHP. Good against RHP. Lacks elite eye. Below average arm.
2. Braden Kubel LA
   .267/.347/.511; 26 HR, 106 RBI; .983 fldg %, 4 good plays, 4 bad plays
   Solid range. Average arm. Very good power. Great contact. Solid against RHP. Great against LHP. Above average eye. Average speed.
   
3. Jose Viriato BAL
   .308/.377/.558; 32 HR, 123 RBI; .970 fldg %, 1 good play, 6 bad plays
   Average range. Below average glove. Average arm. Good power. Good contact. Drives the ball well. Great eye. Great speed. Very durable.
   

Season 2 - AL South Preview

K.C. Royals
Season 1 Record: 108-54
Season 1 Run Differential: 316

The winners of the AL South in Season 1 return an incredibly young and talented pitching staff. Even though they are tied for the youngest team in the AL, this is a very good and experienced team. Not a lot of changes with this team, but experience for the youngsters alone have made KC a better team, and that's not good news for the rest of the teams in the AL South. Cliff Krueger was a nightmare for opposing batters in Season 1 and he returns to front a very solid rotation. Debate rages on KC fan blogs about putting Robert Peterson in the bullpen or making a starter out of him. It's an embarrassment of riches that this is even a topic as most clubs don't have the starting depth that would force Peterson to the bullpen. With a very good and improving young pitching staff joined with a strong offense led by Ronald Sirotka, look for KC to be a front runner to repeat as division champions. This is a team built to compete and win now and has a bright future ahead of it for several more seasons.

Texas Rangers
Season 1 Record: 99-63
Season 1 Run Differential: 202

The Rangers didn’t win their division, but they are the reigning World Series champions. Their offense is extremely well balanced and is anchored by AL MVP winner Ringo Johnson. No significant moves were made in free agency, but with 3 very good starters returning at the top of their rotation and a bullpen anchored by two of the best in Fred Adams and Elvis Janssen, Texas appears well positioned to challenge for the AL South title.

Tampa Bay Rays
Season 1 Record: 91-71
Season 1 Run Differential: 109

How does a team win 91 games and finish 17 games out of first place in its division? Play in the same division as KC, that’s how. Brace Workman was acquired via trade in the offseason to help boost the offense, and he should do just that if he can stay healthy. In a continuing trend for AL South teams, TB brings very solid pitching led by Walker Bryant and Josias Gonzales. The W-L records for those two don’t match their talent level, and bounce-back seasons from them could put the Rays squarely in the chase for the AL South title.

New Orleans Jazz
Season 1 Record: 83-79
Season 1 Run Differential: -50

The Jazz is a solid team that in some other divisions might compete for a division title. However, in the AL South the competition is just better. With developmental players such as Darnell Shaw and A.J. Sewell making the 25 man roster for season 2, the Jazz may not be in the hunt for Season 2, but their future looks bright.

NL West by miggyt4

LA Dodgers

After posting a regular season best 117-45 record, the Dodgers rolled through the playoffs on their way to the World Series before losing in 7 games to the Texas Rangers. The Dodgers return 4/5 of the starting pitching staff that won a combined 89 games last year. The missing piece this year is Willie Diggins (19-6). Willie was traded to Cincinnati during the offseason for 3 minor league players to help populate a depleted farm system. Taking Willie's place in the rotation will most likely be Samuel Root who worked mainly out of the bullpen last year as a long reliever. Samuel posted a 3.10 ERA in 113 innings of work. In the bullpen, Season 1 Fireman of the Year Benny Waddell returns. Benny dominated in Season 1 giving up only 9 earned runs in 46 innings of work. Joining Benny in the bullpen are Bert Moses, Rob Wilkinson, Oswaldo Santiago and McKay Frazier, all of whom have closer stuff. The Dodgers led the ML in ERA last year at 2.85 and I don't see that changing this year even with the loss of Diggins. Just like with the pitching staff, the Dodgers return all the important pieces on offense as well. Harold McKnight, Braden Kubel and Rookie of the Year Theo Mathews all recorded 100+ RBIs for the Dodgers in Season 1. With one of the best pitching staffs in the ML, the offense isn't asked to do much and they won't need to again this year. The Dodgers are just as good as they were last year even with the loss of Willie Diggins. I predict another NL West title and another deep run in the playoffs. Anything short of another World Series appearance will be a disappointment.
Predicted Finish: 104-58 - 1st NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks tied the Nationals for the worst record in the ML last year at 47-115. The heat will be turned up this year on owner The_Kid if the Diamondbacks post another season like they did in Season 1. It's going to be tough again this year for the Diamondbacks partly because they're in the same division as the Dodgers, but also because they simply lack the talent to compete in a very strong NL. Roosevelt Voyles returns this year after hitting 32 HR and recording 112 RBIs in Season 1. He will need to carry the offense again this year. The Diamondbacks added Graham Hiljus in a trade with Cincinnati. Graham hit 34 HR and had 109 RBIs in AAA last season. I don't believe he has the same success at the ML level, but he will help make the Diamondback lineup a little better than in Season 1.

From top to bottom, the Diamondback lineup isn't as bad as their record was last year. What really hurt the Diamondbacks last season was their lack of quality pitching. Frank Lee and Terry Lange tied for the team lead in wins last season with 7. No, that's not a typo, 7 wins. The Diamondbacks did add Robinson Roberts who went 15-5 with a 4.05 ERA in AAA last season for New Orleans and Atlanta. There really isn't much to talk about when it comes to the staff, their simply isn't much talent there and unfortunately won't help the Diamondbacks climb out of the NL West cellar again this season.
Predicted Finish: 50-112 - 4th NL West

San Diego Padres
The Padres finished last season 65-97 and like the Diamondbacks have the pleasure of playing in the same division as the best team in the NL last season. The Padres lineup is led by Cole Swindell (34 HR, 101 RBI) and Bob Daniels (28 HR, 78 RBI). The rest of the lineup is balanced and should see better results this season.

The pitching staff has some bright spots. The Padres added Kaito Johjima in free-agency. Kaito went 11-6 for KC last season. Hulk Roosevelt returns in the bullpen where he won 8 games, saved 9 and posted a 3.79 ERA in 126 innings. I fully expect Yonder Silva to be promoted either at the beginning of the season or immediately at the game 20 mark in the ML season. Yonder went 14-6 with a 2.56 ERA at AA and would immediately become one of the Padres top 3 starting pitchers at the ML level. From top to bottom, the Padres staff isn't all that bad. They lack a dominate pitcher at the top and bottom and playing in pitcher friendly Petco Park definitely helps.

The one bright spot from Season 1 for the Padres was the fact they had the first pick in the Amateur Draft. They used that pick to draft Phil Lowery who although is still a few years away from the ML gives the Padre faithful something to look forward to in a few seasons. If Yonder is promoted like I expect him to be, I definitely see the Padres improving on their 65 win season last year. I believe owner gerald007 is doing a good job of building a team from the ground up and he should continue to see improvements in seasons to come. However, with the Dodgers in the same division, it's going to be a while before the Padres win their 1st NL West crown.

Predicted Finish: 72-90 - 2nd NL West

SF Giants

The Giants return their leading HR hitter from last season's 69-93 squad Reid Howard who hitting a whopping 18 HR. Wait a minute, the team leader had 18 HR. When you have a lineup that lacks power like the Giants, you have to try to generate runs with timely hitting and aggressive baserunning, something the Giants lack. To be fair, the Giants lineup isn't as bad as I'm making it out to be. Prince Cameron has the potential to be a above average hitter, but he is a liability behind the plate as a catcher which forced the Giants to platoon Cameron with Geoff Walker.

The pitching staff has its bright spots. Juan Rios returns as the teams ace. Although Juan went 9-14 in Season 1, he has the stuff to win 12-15 games. The Giants traded for Jacob Watson, a lefty who went 16-9 for the world champion Texas Rangers last season. For the Giants, the pitching staff is really sitting in AAA. Kelvim Thompson and JR Middlebrook will both start the season in AAA and it will be interesting to see what owner miggyt4 decides to do at the game 20 mark.

The Giants have a lot of talent at the AA and AAA level that isn't far from being promoted to the ML level. Ownership needs to be careful not to promote them to quickly to a ML team that isn't all that good. I see similar results as last season unless they decide to promote Thompson or Middlebrook. Even then, I'm not sure how successful those 2 will be at the ML level playing for a team that lacks offensive firepower.

Predicted Finish: 65-97 - 3rd NL West

NL North Preview - Part IV

Montreal – Julio Guillen is the new face in right, determined to get the Expos On the Right Track

The price tag for the Expos newest face was more than $20 million, but the Expos are hoping Julio Guillen proves to be worth every penny. Blessed with nice speed and the ability to drive the ball well, the Nicaraguan will jump straight to the majors, getting the nod in right field over Doc Butler. He’s tireless, and will likely start every game there.

Guillen represents one of the several moves the Expos made over the winter to improve upon their record last year. The organization appears to be starting with the fundamentals: defense. Last season, the Expos committed 108 errors (28th) and made 78 poor plays (30th), putting pressure on an otherwise taxed pitching staff. Over the winter, the right side of the defense was completely overhauled. Gone is starting second baseman Olmedo Leon (20 errors, 11 poor plays) and catcher/first baseman Max Palacios (8 errors, 14 poor plays) who signed with the Astros. With the rangey Guillen now patrolling right, miscast Doc Butler (8 errors, 12 poor plays) takes his skillset to a more suitable position.

To fill the holes, the club signed Brewers free agent second baseman Benjamin Hawkins (13 positive plays) and last year’s late call-up Karl Hamill will still be a defensive improvement at first. Starting shortstop Derrick Taylor’s glove will continue to be a liability (26 errors) but the presence of Hawkins should improve the middle of the defense and the Expos should play better in the field.

Better defense is good news for a pitching staff which surrendered nearly 1,000 runs and featured eight different starters last season, none of whom compiled a winning record. The improvements on the right side should only lower the team ERA (5.72, 30th) and WHIP (1.64, 29th). Aging starter Pepper Hayes was traded to the Nationals for durable reliever Steve Hines (1.34 WHIP, 91 IP), who will be ready every day to help the club sit on a lead. To compensate for Hayes’ departure, the Expos put a band-aid on the hole by signing 36-year-old Kenta Bong (11-11, 1.36 WHIP, 3.97 ERA) to a two-year deal.

All-Star center fielder Anthony Roberts (.319/.386/.383) will continue to set the table for the club, stealing 53 bases in 60 attempts and scoring 98 times but he looks to be joined by Benjamin Hawkins now. Catcher Felipe Melendez (.274/.344/.490) and left fielder Johnny Rose (.311/.372/.609) will be joined by Julio Guillen slugging them home. That’s more good news for a team that had an average attack in most offensive categories and ended the year with a run differential of -274. If things don’t go the way the Expos plan, rumors are they may shop talented Johnny Rose given Cy Oliver is sitting in AAA awaiting his turn in the show.

dwb’s take: an improved offense and a bulked up defense stands to improve the win totals over last year, but the team’s efforts to climb out of the division basement will be hampered by the starting pitching staff, none of which have exceptional command or velocity. Look for their win total to improve and the race in the NL North to tighten, challenging Cincinnati to move up.

NL North Preview - Part III

Cincinnati – Willie Diggins sets off the Big Red Machine’s Arms Race

In a division with two clubs that post team ERAs and WHIPs in the top ten of the league, the Reds went into the offseason with the mindset to fight fire with fire. A trio of major league prospects boarded a plane to Los Angeles this winter, and in return Cincinnati welcomed the centerpiece of their made-over pitching staff: Willie Diggins.

Diggins went 19-6 for Los Angeles while limiting opposing hitters to a .200 average and posting a 0.96 Whip. While those numbers should inflate somewhat in hitting-friendly Great American Ball Park, Diggins did fan 230 batters while walking only 54. An extremely effective pitcher with good speed and command, Diggins’ five-pitch repertoire features a change-up that freezes batters. He is an instant upgrade on the mound for a team that ranked 23rd in ERA (4.78) and 24th in WHIP (1.50) last season. On the plus side for the Reds, the 33-year-old Diggins still has three more years remaining on his contract after the coming season.

The Reds were the most active team in the offseason in the NL North, signing multiple free agents and making trades with five different ball clubs. In addition to Diggins, starting pitcher Ryan Fasano (6-11, 25 starts) joined them from the Diamondbacks in exchange for a utility outfielder. Starting third baseman Abdul Sweeney who hit .298 in 547 AB was packaged with a prospect and dealt to the Athletics, taking his defense with him. Oakland returned starting pitcher Vinny Weatherford, who went 7-14 in 34 starts and becomes the team’s fifth starter (the Reds also obtained corner outfielder Steve Parrish in the deal.)

The bullpen, which allowed 38% of their inherited runners to score to help inflate a negative run differential (-131), also saw changes. The Reds inked aging Vinny Kwon, Boston’s durable set-up man who logged 78 innings of work and should see regular appearances. They then signed a pair of two-pitch right-handers not exactly known for their command of the strike zone: the Royals Erik Eaton, who struck out 46 batters in 52.2 innings of work, and the Rockies Justin Duran. When the Rockies also declined the option on Ned Turnbow, the Reds signed the free agent to a three-year 13.5 million deal. The burly 219-lb. right-hander lets fly a whistling four-seamer but fans say that Turnbow nevers knows where it will land. He is as likely to walk a batter as to K him, giving up 55 free bases in nearly an equal amount of work.

In the field, $22 million wins the services of Ricky Rose from rival Milwaukee, bringing the promise of more consistent power, upgrading the defense and filling the void left by Bob Hansen’s departure to Toronto. Spring training has shown Ricky’s lost a step from the box to first and the zip on his throws have lost a “z” or two, but he will continue to be an offensive threat especially considering the short porch.

They also signed career minor leaguer Harold Ojala of Seattle, giving him his shot at the show. Ojala fits the Cincinnati mold: elite power but struggles to connect with the ball. He slugged 54 homers with the Mariners AAA affiliate. His range may be a liability at third.

The Reds retained the services of Spike Allen after they allowed him to explore free agency. Allen appeared in about 100 games mostly to the rest the starter in left field, logging 289 AB but making the most of them by swatting 27 homers and slugging .550. He is not gifted defensively.

The offensive attack should continue to rely on the long ball. Last year, the team slugged 216 of them, good for 13th in the league, but ranked 26th overall in Runs and RBI. The team lacks speed. Jorge Perez, a utility player who managed 89 AB last year, led the team in steals with 9.

Also of note, starting second baseman Damion Kim is traded to Baltimore, taking his 18 positive plays with him in return for a trio of prospects. Kim was a decent defender up the middle on a team that was overall a shade better than average defensively.

dwb’s take: the presence of Diggins alone is an upgrade to the pitching staff and potentially the win total for the club. Signing Rose away from a rival improves the Reds offense and deprives Milwaukee of a key weapon. Together, the two major acquisitions should tighten the race in the NL North but it remains to be seen if it’s enough to overcome the leaders at the top.

NL North Preview - Part II

Chicago –Hub Bradley and David Davis are the Silver Sluggers of Chi-town

Every game counts, but there’s no need to remind that to the Wrigley faithful after the Cubs – 88-74 last season – fell a game shy of earning a potential wild card berth in the playoffs. The good news is that not much has changed in the windy city. The team returning this season has a very good chance of repeating last year’s feat and even earning a playoff spot outright by challenging Milwaukee for the division crown.

There were no changes over the winter to the starting five. Junior Carrasco inked a three-year contract extension worth $16 million. The hard-throwing right-hander has good command, walking just 54 batters while striking out 148 in 180 innings of work. He along with Felix, Kolb, Benitez and 18-game winner Weiss will return to the mound again to anchor a club that tied for 9th in team ERA (4.09) and 10th overall in WHIP (1.37). The quintet is effective: starters combined for more than 70 percent of the team’s total wins.

In the pen, the Cubs were content to let aging All-Star short reliever Dan Cummings go to the New York Mets. The righty performed 51.2 innings of work last year posting a 4.70 ERA. It was a relatively quiet offseason overall, and the pitching staff that allowed 749 runs (+106) returns to work again.

One key behind the success of the Cubs is their potent offense. Lead by a pair of Silver Sluggers up the middle, center fielder Hub Bradley and second baseman David Davis combined for 84 homeruns, 267 RBIs and 234 runs last season. Each hit more than .300 and posted enormous slugging percentages. In addition, shortstop Jose Camacho hit .291 and swatted 40 doubles in 130 games. Thanks to the trio, opponents were often left fishing balls out of the ivy. The club ended up ranking in the top third of the majors in runs (855), homeruns (239), RBI (832) and finished fourth overall in slugging percentage and eighth in average. Rumor has it slugging outfielder Timo Pinto (AAA) will join the club later this season to bolster the attack.

With all that offense there often is a price to pay, and the Cubs pay for it with their defense. The team committed 105 errors last season (27th) and is not strong up the middle: shortstop Camacho and second baseman Davis were responsible for nearly half (49) of those errors. Hector Fernandez holds down the hot corner, earning a Gold Glove, but the middle of the defense can be a concern. The Cubs hope the solution comes out of the minors as rookie Kenji Uehara, blessed with above average range and a gun for an arm, gets the call up. He will likely only see action late in games with the team squatting on a lead.

dwb’s take: The Cubs make no trades in the offseason and return all their weapons for a second assault on the division crown, hoping their offense overcomes the poor defense up the middle. The coaching staff should look to address the base running this year: the Cubs ran into 102 outs, 37 more than next worst team in the league. Will the addition of Pinto and Uehara swing a game or two in their favor? I think so. Look for them to take the NL North if Milwaukee stumbles.