Thursday, December 4, 2014

S16 Draft Review - by train

Disclaimer: Train somehow saw all but 3 of the first round picks so he volunteered his analysis of these guys. Keep in mind that all of these comments are based on what he saw and his personal preferences. Thank you train. - hurricane384

1. Dann Sierra – Went 1st overall, my scouts saw that as a reach (had him as mid-1st round). Elite control, good vs L, average vs R with a strong repertoire. I rate vsR high in my SP assessment, which knocked him down a bit for me. Strong mid-rotation piece.

2. Stubby Perez – Top pitcher on my board. Plus ratings in control and both splits. Decent pitch mix, but missing that knockout #1 pitch. Slight flyball tendencies, not enough to warrant concern.

3. RJ Leake – I went back and forth between Leake and Huang as my top guy. You can’t go wrong either way. Absolute elite contact/power combo with decent enough splits; eye is lacking. Should play a strong 2B, might eek out enough range to hang in CF for a few seasons. Durability a slight concern (might max out below 75).

4. Rio Acosta – Had him closer to the middle of the 1st round based solely on concerns that he’ll stick at short. Range and Arm Acc are both projecting to be fringy; if those end up decent enough he’s a solid value at 4. Great speed, will torch lefties and hold his own against righties. Should work out to an above avg bat at SS if he sticks.

5. George Gibbs – Strong defensive CF with elite speed. Bat looks to be strong vs R with a plus eye. Should hold his own vsL, power will be middling but not bad for a CF with his other notable skills. Solid value here.

6. Kiko Hoffpauir – Second pitcher on my board; very close to Stubby (I wouldn’t argue with ranking him above Stubby). Control/Durability combo looks to be on the lower end for a SP (in the 20/75 range, makes it tough to get more than 170ish innings). Excellent control and vsR, along with strong pitches and velocity. Slight groundball tendency as well. Fantastic value at #6.

7. Tito Huang – my pick; had Tito top on my board, barely over Leake, Perez and Hoffpauir. Strong contact with elite power; excellent splits but batting eye is going to come in below average. Defensively he’ll likely fall short of, well, short and end up at 3B. Durability on the lower end (similar to Leake, likely to come in somewhere in the low 70s).

8. Gill Tamura – Future gold glove at short, projects elite in all 4 defensive categories. Bat is good too, with above average contact and power to go along with passable splits and eye. When you consider his defensive upside, the bat makes him a special all around player. Another great value pick here.

9. Clarence Nix – Excellent bat, not sure where he lands defensively. Looks to have great power with strong ratings everywhere else – contact, splits and eye all project to solidly above average. Defensively he was listed as a 2B but my projections show he’ll likely end up in LF (or be a butcher at 2B). Remains to be seen where he ends up, but the bat will play anywhere.

10. Sid Gibson – Another mid to top of the rotation SP, which is a nice get at 10. No stamia/dur concerns; excellent control with both splits coming in above average. Lower end velocity, but I’m not a big velo guy so that didn’t impact my ranking of him. Pitches are solid, not spectacular. Missing an “out” pitch.

11. Bunny Russell – Fantastic first name. He’ll offer elite control with really strong splits (especially vsR). High velocity and a GB tendency is nice as well. His stuff will be the only thing holding him back from sitting at the top of a rotation. I’ve seen some pitchers succeed with the stuff he has, and others not so much. Will be interesting to see how he shakes out. Could be a steal at 11 if some of those pitches grade out a little higher than my scouts see.

12. Endy DeJean – Endy looks like he’ll end up in LF, where his bat will be useful but not strong. Best hitting skill is OBP and he’ll make good contact while handling righties better than lefties. Great speed as well; I’ve had some luck in the past with eye/speed/contact type guys and if he ends up hitting those marks I could be under selling him with my opening comment.

13. Shelley Lamb – I had Shelley closer to the end of the round on my list, making this one of the more questionable picks in my scouts’ eyes. Above avg contact and power, with some decent success vsL. Will struggle vsR and I’m worried that the bad batting eye will drag everything down. On the defensive side, my scouts didn’t project him to stick at short, pushing him to 2B or 3B, where the bat becomes a little more important.

14. Haywood Dykstra – From questionable back to good value, Dykstra was a strong pick at 14. Will be good-to-great in all hitting categories and is a solid enough defender to stick at 1B, saving him from needing to shift to DH anytime soon. His bat will play fine at 1B. Biggest red flag is health, which as we all know is a complete crapshoot.

15. Robinzon Alvarez – Another up-the-middle guy, Alvarez might end up in CF, but more likely at 2B (possibly even 3B, depending on arm strength/accuracy). He’ll put the ball in play often, with more success vsL, but fine vsR as well. Eye is low, but offsets a bit with higher contact. Minimal power, which is fine given his defensive abilities. Adds some speed as well.

16. Bruce Tomlinson – SP who looks like he can eat a lot of innings (dur and stamina project to combine for >120, which is a 220+ inning guy for sure). Control will be his biggest challenge, with that skill projected to end up below average. He will try to offset that with strong splits, velocity and groundball tendencies. Pitches are also good. If he can throw enough strikes, he’ll be good.

17. Carmen Becker – another guy I had down the list; probably out of the 1st round. Carmen doesn’t have a standout offensive tool, with each of the 5 categories grading out near average, maybe slightly above depending on where he plays defensively. My scouts see him at 3B, which would leave me looking for a bit more bat.

18. Alfredo Butler – SP with an elite p1 (and good secondary offerings as well). Control and splits are average-to-slightly-above. Comes in low in both velocity and gb/fb, which to me is a scary combo depending on where he pitches his home games. Stamina will be on the low end but the dur might make up for it enough to get him to 180-ish innings.

19. Kiko Wilkinson – always nice to have two Kiko’s in the 1st round. This Kiko is the first RP off the board and a great value as well. Plenty of stamina/durability to throw 80+ innings out of the ‘pen. Will dominate righties and give lefties difficulty as well. Fantastic first pitch, strong second pitch (which you need if you only have 2 pitches). Good velo, gonna strike out a lot of guys.

20. Mitch Marshall – Had Mitch out of the 1st round, but as we get to the back end of the round that’s not that far away. Similar profile to Becker; does everything okay, but no one tool stands out. Contact is a little low, pairs that with some decent power and average splits/eye. On defense, my scouts show him landing in LF, though if he can exceed those projections and stick at 2B his bat will play much better.

21. Enny Martinez – first guy my scouts didn’t see!

22. Chris Hudson – also didn’t see him

23. Jamie Fox – zero power, but will do everything else well. Projects to a very good eye, to go along with a strong vsR (a ratings combo I always like). Contact and vsL are average. Will struggle to slug much of anything, so his offensive value is tied to his ability to get on base. Once there, his top-end speed will hopefully add some value as well. Defensively he looks like he can stick in CF for now; if he fails to hit those ratings though, his value will take a hit since his bat will struggle in a corner spot.

24. JC Lindsey – defensive specialist, does not appear to have much future success with the bat. Contact hitter with low power, vsL and eye, and a mediocre vsR. Has good speed so hopefully that will help his offensive game. On the defensive side, he looks like a legit CF with good range and an elite glove.

25. Chipper Rolison – second RP off the board and another pretty good value. Good dur/sta profile; elite control paired with strong splits. Velo is low, gb/fb is average. P1 is good enough, and his other stuff is passable as well. Looks like a solid Setup A.

26. Tom Rushford – according to my scouts, best value pick of the draft. I had him high, based on the combination of good offensive abilities and a top-flight pitch calling rating (his other defensive skills are strong too). Looks like he’ll check every box on the offensive side of his game, with good contact and average or better in all other ratings. Pair that with his excellent D, and this is a great pick.

27. Tom Carr – Defense only SS. Contact and power will be sub-50, eye is almost non-existent. Good splits though, but with the other areas lacking he will struggle to hit. Solid D across the board, so he will add value on that side.

28. Felix Sung – Potentially a 2B, another guy on the fringe with his glove. If he sticks at 2B, the bat will play better. Primary offensive skill is his batting eye; contact and splits are lacking. Power is passable, especially for a 2B. If his D doesn’t make it to full projections, he’d end up in a corner OF spot and his bat would not hold up as well there.

29. Lucas Slaughter – Average across the board with the bat – 50’s and 60’s across the board. Pretty strong defender – all ratings project to plus but the glove might not make it as a SS. Looks like he’ll profile as a super utility type.

30. Eduardo Barrios – I had him much higher (right around the middle of the round), due to an offensive skillset I like. Above average in all offensive ratings other than power. Brings good speed to the table as well, making it likely that he can hit well enough to earn a regular gig. He’ll need to, as his glove doesn’t add a ton of value. Probably ends up in a corner OF, unless there’s something there I’m missing. Definite value here at the end of the round.

31. Felix Hughes – I had Hughes well out of the first due to concerns with his bat. Very strong vsL, but there’s not much else there. His batting eye will be a hindrance, projecting as very far below average. Glove and arm are probably good enough to hang at 3B, range needs to surprise to reach the minimums though.

32. Mitchell Stieb - I’m a sucker for offense first, zero defensive value types and that’s what we have here. Stieb projects to elite power combined with enough in the other categories to be above average offensively. On the defensive side, he probably won’t make it as a C, so he’ll need that bat to be good. Solid value at the end of the round.

33. Junior Castillo – lowest rated guy on my board to end up in the 1st round. Not going to get much offense, if any, with him. Power is zero, nothing else notable with the stick. Should play some good D, as all of his fielding ratings project to be above average.

34. Vladamir Donatello – not scouted.

S16 Draft Review - by hurricane384

  1. LHP Dann Sierra (STL)
    A solid SP, he projects as a top of the rotation starter. He projects to great control and a great pitch combination. Doesn't throw hard and is merely average at keeping the ball down. Doesn't excel at keeping the ball out of the hitting zone.
  2. RHP Stubby Perez (LA)
    Doesn't have great control, but does well keeping the ball out of the hitting zone. Throws with some velocity, but does allow more than his fair share of flyballs. Pitch combination, while not lethal, is solid.
  3. 2B R.J. Leake (NY2)
    Leake projects as a top-notch defense CF/2B. Good speed. Doesn't strike out. Really good power. Below average at consistently driving the ball. Below average eye. Provides tremendous value on defense with his power.
  4. SS Rio Acosta (MIN)
    Lacks the range to be a ML SS, but the glove and arm should be good enough to be a GG IF. Some power, drives the ball extremely well. Good eye. Good speed. Strikes out more than you'd like.
  5. CF George Gibbs (ATL)
    Great range and glove. Very fast. Little power. Good eye. Drives ball well. Decent contact ability.
  6. RHP Kiki Hoffpauir (CLE)
    Good control. Keeps ball out of hitting zone against RHB. Hard thrower. Keeps ball down in zone. Good pitches.
  7. SS Tito Huang (OAK)
    Slightly below average across the board defensively, but that shouldn't matter as his offensive numbers are off the charts...period. Great power, contact, and splits. Average eye, shouldn't affect his ability to be a perennial all-star.
  8. SS Gill Tamura (ARI)
    Tremendous range. Great arm. Average to above average across the board offensively. 
  9. LF Clarence Nix (FLA)
    Great range. Average at avoiding strikeouts but has very good power and drives the ball very well. Good eye. 
  10. RHP Sid Gibson (TOR)
    Good control. Solid at keeping the ball out of the hitting zone. Decent top 2 pitches. Lacks complete repertoire. Keeps ball down in zone.
    mburgy says: For the 5th consecutive season, the Blue Jays went pitching heavy. Sid Gibson selected at #10 projects to be a back of the rotation innings eater. Good stamina and control should keep his pitch counts down. Lower splits with good pitch selection
  11. RHP Bunny Russell (WAS)
    Tremendous control. Average at keeping the ball out of hitting zone. Throws fairly hard. Lacks that putaway pitch.
    chase39 says: with the 11th pick we drafted Bunny Russell . We had him ranked number 2 on our board, so we are pleased to get him at 11. He should develop into a solid number 1 or 2 starter for us.
  12. RF Endy DeJean (MIL)
    Great eye. Solid defensively. Won't strike out too much. Solid power. Drives ball well. Very fast. Average baserunner.
  13. SS Shelley Lamb (COL)
    Doesn't have the arm strength to be a great SS. Solid power, won't strike out too much. Doesn't square the ball consistently. Lacks great knowledge of strike zone.
  14. 1B Haywood Dykstra (CIN)
    Squares the ball very consistently. Good eye. Solid power. Average at avoiding K's. 
  15. SS Robinson Alvarez (TEX)
    Listed as a SS, but has a better chance of sticking at 2B or LF. Will be a great leadoff hitter with power. Squares the ball very well.
  16. RHP Bruce Tomlinson (CH2) **UNSIGNED**
    Currently unsigned, Tomlinson could be a great pick at 16. Projects to very good pitches, throws hard and keeps the ball down in the zone. Keeps the ball out of the hitting zone. Solid pitches too.
  17. 2B Carmen Becker (LAA)
    Great power. Average contact. Solid defensively for 2B. Could play 3B. Drives the ball well. Decent eye.
  18. RHP Alfredo Butler (CH1)
    Could be a solid RP. Decent control. Does a good job of keeping the ball out of the hitting zone. Good pitches. Doesn't throw hard and doesn't get GBs.
  19. RHP Kiko Wilkinson (BOS)
    Should be a nearly dominant RP. Good control. Keeps the ball out of the hitting zone and keeps the ball down in the zone. Throws hard and has 2 dominant pitches.
  20. 2B Mitch Marshall (PIT)
    Should definitely be a good CF. Average to above average offensively with solid speed.
  21. 2B Enny Martinez (NY1)
    Lacks great range. Good speed. Drives the ball well and can really work the count. Doesn't have much power and will strike out some.
  22. C Chris Hudson (TB)
    Tremendous defensive catcher. Above average power and contact. Drives the ball well and can really work the count. This is a tremendous value pick at 22.
  23. CF Jamie Fox (SEA)
    Good defensive CF. No power. Solid contact. Drives the ball well against RHP. Great eye. Great speed and good baserunning ability.
  24. CF J.C. Lindsey (COL) **UNSIGNED**
    Great defensive CF with tremendous speed. Average eye. Lacks good power. Good contact. Does square the ball consistently.
  25. LHP Chipper Rolison (KC)
    Great control. Great pitches. Keeps ball down in zone and avoids hitting zone decently. Doesn't throw hard.
  26. C Tom Rushford (ARI)
    Doesn't have the most accurate arm but can call a game and a strong a arm. Drives the ball well. Above average power and contact. Decent eye.
  27. SS Tom Carr (TB)
    Great defender. Should win some GG. Not good offensively as he will struggle to reach base. No strike zone discipline. Struggles making contact, but can square it up when he does. No real power.
  28. 2B Felix Sung (DET)
    Great range. Below average the rest of the way defensively. Great eye. Strikes out a lot. Decent power and decent at driving the ball.
  29. CF Lucas Slaughter (NO)
    Great range. Very strong arm. Makes good contact with solid power. Drives the ball well and has a good eye. Might not stick as a CF.
    mongoose_22 says: We expect Lucas Slaughter to develop into a serviceable 4th outfielder. He should be solid enough defensively to play in CF, with good speed and a bat that is barely adequate. He has already blown out his hammy though, so we now expect even less out of him.
  30. 2B Eduardo Barrios (SD)
    Great range solid glove. Good speed. Drives the ball decently. Doesn't strike out much. Won't hit for power. Great eye.
    opie5 says: San Diego management is very pleased to acquire OF Eduardo Barrios with the 30th pick in the draft. This is one of the few years in which San Diego feels they have acquired a ML bat in the draft. Barrios’s glove will relegate him to a corner position but his bat will get him in the lineup. Power is not Eduardo’s game but getting on base certainly is. Barrios projects as a high OBP player that should bat in the 2 hole – he can handle the stick.
  31. 3B Felix Hughes (SF)
    An oddity here...doesn't have the range to play most IF positions but his glove and arm would be wasted in the OF or at 1B. He drives the ball well against LHP while struggling against RHP. Not a good eye. Won't strike out too much though. Average power. 
  32. C Mitchell Stieb (BAL)
    Tremendous power. Dominant against LHP. Good eye. Struggles against RHP. Should be able to play a decent C.
    hopkinsheel says: In a pretty weak draft, we feel we got a steal with Stieb. He projects to be a big masher with a solid OPS between his power, splits, and eye. Always nice to grab a guy like that at the end of the first round.
  33. SS Junior Castillo (CH1)
    Not an ideal SS glove, but great range and a great arm. No power and struggles against LHP. Very good against RHP. Average contact ability and eye.
  34. SS Vladimir Donatello (ARI)
    Terrible glove, weak arm. Solid power, good contact. Average at squaring the ball. Good eye.